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Article name
Performance Evaluation of an Automated Trading System on MetaTrader 5 Using the Engulfing–Fibonacci–EMA Strategy: Backtesting and Risk Analysis
Article type
Research article
Authors Phongphat Sukchaem, Alongkot Gongmanee, Kongkarn Dullayachat, Paweem Khoenkaw and Somnuek Sinthupuan(*)
Office Computer Science Department, Faculty of Science, Maejo University *Corresponding author: somnuk@mju.ac.th
Journal name Vol. 13 No.1 (2027): January - April
Abstract

             This study develops and evaluates an automated trading system based on the Engulfing–Fibonacci–EMA strategy for MetaTrader 5. The system combines EMA-based trend filtering, engulfing candlestick signals, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, and position management through stop-loss, multiple take-profit targets, break-even adjustment, and stop advancement.
            The backtest used XAUUSD M1 OHLC data resampled into H1 bars during January 1, 2024, to December 30, 2025, with an initial capital of USD 1,000. The experiments compared the Engulfing–EMA baseline, the proposed Engulfing–Fibonacci–EMA system, and improved configurations with candle-strength filtering, direction control, spread assumptions, and position sizing.
          The proposed system produced a higher net profit than the baseline (USD 725 vs. USD 360) but also higher drawdown. The Improved Candidate increased profit factor and reduced drawdown, while the Aggressive Configuration generated USD 815.16 profit with 51.55% maximum drawdown. Additional tests on EMA sensitivity, market regimes, and in-sample/out-of-sample performance were added to address robustness and overfitting concerns.
          The results indicate that the strategy can generate returns when signal quality, volatility conditions, and position size are controlled. However, high-return configurations should be interpreted as high-risk scenarios rather than recommendations for live trading.

Keywords Engulfing; Fibonacci; EMA; Automated Trading System; MetaTrader 5; Backtesting; Risk Management; EMA Sensitivity; Market Regime; Out-of-sample Testing
Page number 1-20
ISSN ISSN 3027-7280 (Online)
DOI
ORCID_ID 0000-0003-1461-1243
Article file https://mitij.mju.ac.th/ARTICLE/R70001.pdf
  
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